Some of Leslie's top contenders, 'Black Swan', 'True Grit', '127 Hours'.

Last year, I was pretty dubious when the field of Best Picture nominees at the Academy Awards expanded to 10 films, because sometimes it seems a stretch to even get five.

This year, though, we are chock-full of excellent, or at least excellently reviewed, movies that seem like shoo-ins when the Oscar nominations are announced Tuesday morning.

Here are my probable 10, including your usual indie darlings, foreign fare, a sentimental animated favorite, and the continuing career redemption of Ben Affleck:

The Social Network

The King’s Speech

The Fighter

True Grit

Toy Story 3

Winter’s Bone

Black Swan

The Kids Are All Right

The Town

Inception

Some long shots: 127 Hours, The Rabbit Hole, Another Year, Get Low and Animal Kingdom.